I recently attended a lecture by Allan Lichtman (see here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Licht man). Among other things he is a prognosticator of presidential elections and has developed a system "13 keys to the white house" that has correctly predicted the popular vote winner in every election since 1984. I believe his system also retrospectively predicted the winner in every election since 1860.

Palin Rumors

Cripes, this has gotten ridiculous. Folks, look, let's just run through a list here. (Updated.)

  1. Yes, she is Governor of Alaska. No, she's not the Lieutenant Governor. No, she's not currently Mayor of Wasilla. Yes, she was Mayor of Wasilla, some years ago.
   2. Yes, there are people in Alaska who think she's too liberal.
   3. Yes, she did push for and approve the Wasilla Sports Center. Yes, it did cost a lot of money. (People keep saying $20 million, that article says $14.5 million, but then they also added a $1.2 million dollar food service/kitchen piece. This year, since Palin was out of office as Mayor.) Yes, the city went into debt to do it (how did you buy your house, bunkie?) and raised the city sales tax from 2 percent to 2.5 percent to pay for it. Yes, the city is paying it off early.
   4. Yes, she did want authority to have wolves culled from the air, because they were taking too many moose and caribou. Which people hunt for food in the back country in Alaska. No, she isn't shooting them herself. I mean, not that she couldn't, but I'm sure she doesn't have time. (Thanks to bluemerlin in the comments.)
   5. No, the Downs baby (Trig) isn't Bristol's kid, and no, the kid wasn't born with Downs because (a) Palin flew on an airplane (b) went home to have the baby after an amniotic leak (c) because he was the result of incest between Todd Palin and Bristol.
   6. No, Track (the kid who is leaving for Iraq) didn't join the NG because he was a drug addict. He may have joined the NG because he was tired of people saying his Mom was getting him into the good hockey leagues. (Yes, that one was original reporting. I've got sources in Wasilla.)
   7. No, she's never been in any porn as far as anyone can find (and God knows I get enough google hits on those very topics.)
   8. No, no one seems to be able to even find swimsuit pictures of her from her beauty queen days; God knows I looked. The bikini pictures that are around are photoshopped, just like the Vogue cover I have up.
   9. No she wasn't a member of the (wild-eyed libertarian) Alaska independence Party, although her husband once was
  10. No, neither the (Canadian) National Post, nor Marc Armbinder at the Atlantic have troubled themselves to issue a correction. Yes, the New York Times did finally correct their story of September 1 -- on September 5. This was after Elizabeth Bumiller was quoted by Howard Kurtz as saying she was "completely confident about the story." Yes, that was after the New York Times's source retracted the story. Yes, this should embarrass the Times, Bumiller, and Howard Kurtz. No, there have been no signs of embarrassment.
  11. No, she was never a Pat Buchanan supporter; even when Buchanan claims she was, she was on the board of Steve Forbes'a campaign in Alaska.
  12. No, she's not anti-semitic. In fact, she has an Israeli flag in her office. (Contrary to popular belief, the usual Evangelical thinks Israel has a right to exist, granted by God.)
  13. No, she's doesn't believe that the Iraq War was directed by God. Yes, she did pray that proceeding with the war was God's will. (Ever hear the phrase "Not my will, but Thine, be done"?)
  14. No, Buchanan doesn't support her now; in fact he's supporting Obama. (Buchanan did think her speech was amazing, but then so do 80 percent of the people who saw it.)
  15. yes, she was pregnant when she got married
  16. No, so far there's no confirmation she had an affair while she was married, and they've denied it pretty strongly. No, she wouldn't be the first Christian woman who got a little on the side, if it were true.
  17. No, she wasn't named as a co-respondent in a divorce; there's no evidence she had an affair with her husbands' business partner. The partner tried to have his divorce records sealed because he was being harrassed by journalists who used them to get his phone number.
  18. Yes, barring immaculate conception, Bristol appears to have had sex with her fiancee. No, Bristol didn't receive only "abstinence-only" sex ed.
  19. Yes, I have it on reliable report that Sarah Levi's mom has been heard screaming "Way to go Levi!" at her future son-in-law son. No, it doesn't appear to have been when Bristol broke the news to her family.
      Note: I originally understood this story to be about Sarah, not Levi's mom, in the context of hockey games. As such, it's shouldn't be in a Sarah Palin Rumors story, but I like the story too much to delete it.
  20. yes, her 17 year old daughter is pregnant; no, the baby's father is not an eighth grader; no, having sex at 16 is not statutory rape in Alaska
  21. yes, she did fire the public safety guy -- but he said in the Anchorage paper that, for the record, she never, and no one else in her administration ever, tried to make him fire her ex-brother-in-law
  22. and yes, the state trooper (her sister's ex-husband) she was worried about did: tase her 10 year old nephew; drive his state patrol car while drinking or drunk; did threaten to "bring her down"; and did threaten to murder her father and sister if they dared to get an attorney to help with the divorce.
  23. yes, the state trooper was suspended when he was put under a court protective order
  24. no, the trooper wasn't fired
  25. yes, she did fire the Wasilla Chief of Police as Mayor; yes, it was because he was lying to the City Council.
  26. Yes, she did try to cut her own salary as Mayor by $4000 a year; yes, she had voted against the $4000 a year raise while on the City Council.
  27. No, she didn't cut funding for unwed mothers; yes, she did increase it by "only" 354 percent instead of 454 percent, as part of a multi-year capital expenditures program. No, the Washington Post doesn't appear to have corrected their story. Even after this was pointed out in the comments on the story.
  28. No, she didn't cut special needs student funding; yes, she did raise it by "only" 175 percent.
  29. yes, she did try, clearly unsuccessfully, to get Bristol married off to her fiancee before the story came out
  30. yes, she did ask the librarian if some books could be withdrawn because of being offensive; no, they couldn't; yes she did threaten to fire the librarian a month later; no, that wasn't over the books thing but instead over administrative issues; no, the librarian wasn't fired either; yes, the librarian was a big supporter of one of her political opponents; yes, the librarian was also the girlfriend of the Chief of police mentioned above; no, this is not the first time in the history of civilization that someone has been threatened with being fired over a political dispute
  31. No the list of books she wanted to ban that's being passed around isn't real; among other things, it includes a number of books published after her time in office there.
  32. No, that hasn't actually deterred people from claiming it really is true even if the list isn't correct. For example:
      "This list might not in fact reflect the books Sarah Palin wanted banned. As more than one person in Comments has pointed out, some of them were not published when Palin was in office. It is my hope that the mainstream media will not let this story drop and that at some point an actual list will surface. The very thought of having someone who once advocated book-banning possibly occupying one of the highest offices of our land fills me with profound dread. It should fill you with dread too."
  33. No, I don't understand why a fake list is supposed to fill me with dread, either.
  34. no, it wasn't a shotgun wedding; Bristol and Levi been engaged for a good while according to his mother. It was either an accident or just an unconventional order.
  35. yes, she's an was an Assembly of God Holy Roller. No, she doesn't attend an AoG church now. Yes, she did leave the AoG because they were getting too weird for her.
  36. No, she's not anti-Mormon. No, not all AoG churches are anti-Mormon. (AoG is even more hard-core about allowing each pastor and congregation to make their own decisions than the Baptists are.) (Thanks to AnonAmom in the comments.)
  37. No, she's not from another planet. No, I haven't actually heard that one yet, but you wait.
  38. yes, she apparently believes in some variant of Intelligent Design
  39. no, she didn't try to force the schools to teach it; she said if someone brought it up, it was an appropriate subject for debate.
  40. No, she doesn't believe in "abstinence only" education. Yes, she thinks abstinence is an effective way of preventing pregnancy. Duh. Yes, she believes kids should learn about condom use in schools.
  41. yes, she kills animals and eats them, and wears their skins
  42. yes, she was a beauty contest contestant
  43. yes, she was once a sportscaster
  44. yes, she has a college degree in Journalism, but I won't hold that against her, as she seems to have found honest work as well
  45. yes, she sometimes wears her hair up; no that's not a "beehive"
  46. yes, her husband is Not A White Person (he's a Yup'ik; an Eskimo but not an Inuit as my Inuit cousins have taken some pains to explain)
  47. yes, she has on occasion tried to get money from the federal government.
  48. yes, she did finally turn down the money for the bridge. Yes, that meant changing her mind about it.
  49. yes, she was vetted extensively, not just in three days -- I've got links to press reports about people coming to Wassila on 29 May, and we had her on our Veepstakes at PJM from the first day we ran it.
  50. yes, she want to a bunch of colleges before getting a degree. No, that's not illegal. Yes, she seems to have made something of herself anyway.
  51. no, they didn't talk to a lot of the R's power structure during the vetting; that probably has to do with the fact that she beat them in elections and sent a bunch of them to jail.
  52. Yes, Sarah Palin's acceptance speech was written by a speechwriter. Duh. No, none of Obama's, McCain's, nor Biden's speeches were impromptu off the cuff things either.
  53. Yes, she did put the Governors plane on eBay. No, that's not how it was finally sold. Yes, McCain did say it wrong. Bad McCain.
  54. No, Sarah Palin doesn't have such control of Alaskans that people are afraid to say bad things about her. (What, are you nuts? Look at this list.) No, I don't think it's likely that she called Obama "Sambo". (Good God, man, I'm ten years older than her and I barely remember "Little Black Sambo.") Yes, I'm sure there are people who don't like her -- I've talked with some myself.

the obvious thing to do with Palin is call her out on her past record, her lies about being anti-earmark and how her weak governorship with zero foreign policy experience is just like Bush.  And so is the religious fundamentalism so much like Bush.

Today Obama took a swipe at Palin's penchant for pork as mayor and governor yet claiming otherwise.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/ 2008/09/obama-targets-m.html

Obama then opened up rare criticism on VP nominee Sarah Palin, "I know the governor of Alaska has been, you know, saying she is change. And that is great. She is a skillful politician. But when you been taking all these earmarks when it is convenient and then suddenly you are the champion anti-earmark person. That is not change, come on. I mean, words mean something. You can't just make stuff up. You can't just make stuff up. We have a choice to make and the choice is clear."

as the informed know, Palin hired the first ever washington lobbyist for Wasilla (pop. 5,000) and got 27$ million in earmarks, while Alaska is the number one state in earmarks per resident.

Alec Baldwin and many others have come to the same conclusion that Palin = Bush

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alec-baldw in/john-mccain-is-not-george_b_124464.ht ml

Palin is Bush. What helped propel Bush into the White House was not only some effective electoral nullification. It was his lack of a record in public office. The governorship of Texas is one of the more ceremonial of all the governorships in this country. The state legislature calls the shots. Bush came into power with less foreign policy experience than Barack Obama has now. And was "elected" to two terms. Bush had no foreign policy record to examine.

The fundamentalist connection between Bush and Palin is scary, with Palin saying the Iraq war is a task from God..

If I'm Obama I'm saying with McCain you get all of George Bush's bad policies, while  with Palin you get Bush's executive and foreign policy experience - and we all know how that turned out.

I'll give 100$ to Obama if Biden calls Palin "george bush with lipstick".

it is a very credible charge with many parallels.

I think I sense an ass kicking here. What do you think?

BUFFALO, N.Y. -- General Wesley K. Clark, U.S. Army (Ret.), will join Karl Rove for this month's UB Distinguished Speakers Series (DSS) election debate. The program is scheduled for 8 p.m. Sept. 26 in Alumni Arena on UB's North (Amherst) Campus.
...

At UB, he will be sharing the stage with Rove, former White House Deputy chief of staff and senior advisor to President George W. Bush. Clark will join the Distinguished Speaker Series program in the place of former Senator John Edwards, who yesterday cancelled all public appearances through the November election.

Tickets already distributed for "Rove-Edwards" will be honored and there is no need for ticket holders to exchange them. Additional tickets for the Rove-Clark lecture are now available at the UB Alumni Arena Ticket office, all Tops outlets or online at Tickets.com.

For more information mand to read the rest, please go here:
http://www.buffalo.edu/news/9620

If you find faults with our country, make it a better one. If you're disappointed with the mistakes of government, join its ranks and work to correct them. Enlist in our Armed Forces. Become a teacher. Enter the ministry. Run for public office. Feed a hungry child. Teach an illiterate adult to read. Comfort the afflicted. Defend the rights of the oppressed. Our country will be the better, and you will be the happier. Because nothing brings greater happiness in life than to serve a cause greater than yourself.
--John McCain, Convention speech

On the other hand, you have a resume from a gifted man with an Ivy League education. He worked as a community organizer. What? He worked -- I said -- I said, OK, OK, maybe this is the first problem on the resume. He worked as a community organizer.
--Rudy Giuliani, Convention speech

I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a community organizer, except that you have actual responsibilities.
--Sarah Palin, Convention speech

Good morning everyone!

A few days ago I rode my first century.  A century is a 100 mile ride, though I actually clocked in at 101 miles.  I went out west for quite awhile, going through some farm country and cleared my head.  It takes a lot, I mean a lot (!), of effort and stamina to do this for the first time.  I had a lot of time to think, as I was out for over eight hours (it'll be less the next time!).

There may not have been a lot of talk about poverty and the economy in the coverage of the national political conventions during the past two weeks -- but you can bet there will be a lot of talk about it today at a national convention of community organizers and activists taking place in Los Angeles, Chicago and Birmingham, AL.

Follow me over the fold for the story of how and why more than 16,000 people from across America are coming together to ratify a bottom-up anti-poverty platform that has been more than a year in the making.

Palin's Church Promoting Conversion of Gays to Heterosexuals

Gov. Sarah Palin's church is promoting a conference that promises to convert gays into heterosexuals through the power of prayer.

"You'll be encouraged by the power of God's love and His desire to transform the lives of those impacted by homosexuality," according to the insert in the bulletin of the Wasilla Bible Church, where Palin has prayed for about six years.

What biased, left wing media source is reporting that?  Fox News of course.  

There are reasons why Palin's church bothers me more than Obama's.  Obama, while he does seem to believe in Jesus, joined his church because he was amazed at the good work he could do by being a member of that community.  Palin joined hers because she believed in it.  Obama has denounced the controversial messages of his church.  Palin hasn't said one word either way.   Obama doesn't bring up the themes of his church at all.  Palin speaks in the language of hers and makes anti-abortion legislation her most important issue.   Some of you might want to add that  I like Obama and hate Palin, and I can't deny that bias, but the reason I dislike Palin so much is because of this.  

There's a reason they're keeping Palin off the trail.  Their approach is to lay low and hope that only the right people hear about her beliefs.  If she can't be asked about them, she doesn't have to either defend them (and lose moderates) or denounce them (and lose her supporters).  It's the Internet age though and I believe the truth will get out.